Report Details

2006 Lamp Replacement Model

This series of six excel spreadsheets provides a baseline forecast and 18 linked user groups over the entire projection industry to forecast UHP-type lamp replacement needs. The model can be customized for individual analysis and “what if” scenarios.

Quick Facts

Date of Release: Publisher: Authors: Number of Pages:

February 2006 Insight Media Matthew Brennesholtz Chris Chinnock Justin Lindsay 6 excel files

Key Conclusions:

This model represents pioneering work in the modeling of UHP-type lamp replacement needs for the projection industry. The sophisticated model approaches the market by dividing it into four segments and 18 user groups. Attributes are assigned to each user group to model characteristics of the lamp, projection product and usage, buying patterns and trends in alternative illumination and buying patterns.

The model is a bottom-up approach to estimating demand for replacement lamps and matches very well to our top-down approach profiled in the 2006 Projection Lamp Report.

Results derived from the model indicate growing demand in all major segments (Professional Front Projection, Professional Rear Projection, Consumer Front Projection, Consumer Rear Projection) – even in consumer rear projection where we estimate sales of new products will peak in 2008. Replacement lamp needs will continue to increase due to the long product lifetime of these TVs and the significant installed base.

The Need:

A lamp replacement module can cost a consumer $250 to $400 and there are literally thousands of different modules designed and manufactured to support the 4 major market segments. For lamp suppliers to carry even a fraction of this inventory represents an enormous investment. The Lamp Replacement Model can help to manage this inventory to reduce costs and write-offs of overstocked inventory.

Projection systems makers can use the model in a similar way to anticipate the lamp replacement needs of the intended user group and manage inventories, or provide better guidance on inventory management to stocking partners.

Finally, purchasers of the Lamp Replacement Model can customize spreadsheets and profiles for a wide variety of analytical tasks including “what if” scenarios.

Model Organization:

To develop the model, Insight Media first divided the projection market into four major segments (Professional Front Projection, Professional Rear Projection, Consumer Front Projection, Consumer Rear Projection). Within each segment, several different user groups were identified, as shown in the Table below.

Professional Front Projection
Higher Education	Post high school institutions including colleges and universities. Lamps are typically UHP-type.
K-12 Education	Kindergarten through 12 th grade of high school. Lamps are typically UHP-type.
Road Warrior	Users who travel taking a projector with them. This category has historically used UHP-type lamps exclusively. By the end of the forecasts in this report, there will be some penetration of LEDs into this category.
Meeting Room	Installed projectors in meeting and boardrooms. Includes semi-portable projectors moved from room to room but not taken outside the building. Lamps are typically UHP-type.
Events	Rental and staging, auditoriums and road shows. High-end, high-brightness projectors that are portable in the sense that professionals rather than users move them. Xenon and UHP lamps are both used by this user group.
Vis/Sim and 3D	Visualization, simulation and 3D imaging installation sites. UHP-type lamps are likely to dominate this category, although some xenon lamps will be used as well.
Electronic Cinema	Pre-show projectors installed in theaters for advertising applications. Also, projectors permanently installed in large auditoriums. Typically these projectors would use one or more high-wattage UHP-type lamps, although high-powered xenon lamps may be used. As Digital Cinema projectors become more common, separate e-cinema projectors are expected to vanish. Therefore, for analysis purposes, this category was merged with Digital Cinema
Digital Cinema	Projectors installed in theaters to show the main cinema feature. Projectors are all likely to be DCI-compliant. It is expected that only high power (>3kW) xenon lamps will be used in this category.
Entertainment	Museums, amusement parks, digital signage, lobbies and other public displays. Lamps are typically UHP-type.
Professional Rear Projection
Pro A/V-CC	Professional Video including post production and broadcast applications plus command and control including security monitoring. Commonly multiple units installed in video walls. Lamps are typically UHP-type, although some xenon lamps are likely to be used in broadcast and post-production applications. Multiple UHP-type lamps are used in most cases, more for redundancy than for added brightness.
Digital Signage and RP Monitor	Public displays including advertising and public information. Commonly stand-alone units. Lamps are typically UHP-type. Competition from flat-panel displays such as plasma and LCD put the long-term survival of this category in doubt.
Consumer Front Projection
Cinema Emulators	Home Cinema systems with dedicated rooms with high-end projection and sound systems. Projectors >$7,000. Lamps are either Xenon or UHP-type. The image quality produced by these systems often exceeds the image quality produced by film in a movie theater, much to the distress of the theater owners. While the numbers in this category are relatively small, they set the image-quality pace for both the consumer video business and the cinema business.
Cinema Wannabes	Home Cinema systems with either dedicated or multi-purpose rooms with mid-range projection and sound systems. $3-$7K for the projector. Lamps are typically UHP-type.
Big Screen Envy	This group has purchased a front projector because it offers the biggest screen for the cost (projector $800 to $3K). No dedicated room. Lamps are typically UHP-type.
Digital Teen	The projector will be used by teenagers and young adults for games, movies, TV and other applications. Often used in non-traditional locations for non-traditional applications. Projector <$700. In this product category, illumination sources other than UHP-type and xenon lamps will make a significant penetration during the time period of this report. Light sources will include LEDs, incandescent lamps and low-power HID lamps.
Consumer Rear Projection
Premium Home Theater	Home theater people who prefer rear projection to front projection. Dedicated set-ups and high-end rear projectors. Often focused on the technology rather than the cinema content. Lamps are typically UHP-type, although some xenon lamps will be used in this category.
Standard Home Theater	Home theater people who prefer rear projection to front projection. Dedicated set-ups and high-end rear projectors. Focused on the cinema content rather than the technology. Lamps are typically UHP-type.
Prime Timers	For this group, the RPTV is the main TV for watching both HDTV and standard definition material. No dedicated home theater room. TV watching may be considered an “event” and the TV is on relatively short hours compared to the next category. Lamps are currently UHP-type, but there will be some LED penetration by the end of the study period.
All Timers	For this group, the RPTV is the main TV for watching both HDTV and standard definition material. No dedicated home theater room. TV watching is not considered an “Event” and the RPTV set is on relatively long hours. Lamps are currently UHP-type, but there will be some LED penetration by the end of the study period.

There are four separate excel spreadsheets, one for each of the above market segments, with tabs for the modeling of each user group. A fifth spreadsheet provides Insight Media’s top-level forecast for projection products in the four main segments. A sixth spreadsheet is provided for the client to customize, based upon internal lamp replacement data and/or to perform “what if” analyses.

The spreadsheets in this model are unprotected and none of the cells are locked. Therefore, the user of this replacement lamp model is free to:

• Establish their own categories
• Modify any of the properties of an existing category
• Change the total forecast for projection units
• Link the replacement model to external models of projector demand
• Re-distribute these projectors among current or new user groups
• Add additional parameters to the model
• Delete existing parameters
• Change the basic structure of the model
• Change the appearance of any of the figures or tables
• Create new figures or tables

Model Details:

The main characteristics used to model each user group are shown in the Table below. For each user group, we assign a lamp wattage, lamp lifetime and projector usage hours. This data can then be used to calculate the average lamp replacement time. We also assign a product lifetime.
But projection products enter the market at different times and the usage parameters can vary over time even within a user group. We therefore assign model parameters to adjust for this variability. The model also accommodates projectors with 2 or 4 lamps per projectors, the sale of replacement lamps with new projectors and the penetration of non-UHP-type lamps into the user group.

To accurately model replacement needs, we model the installed base, which is done by tracking sales from 2000 forward, taking into account projectors that are retired from service. The installed base and the replacement lamp needs are modeled on a quarterly basis for each user group.

A 21-page instruction book has been written to explain in detail how to use the model. To request a copy of this document explaining the model in more detail, click here.

Who Should Buy:

• Anyone considering designing or manufacturing a microdisplay-based projection system.
• Wholesales, retailers or others involved in or contemplating entry into the replacement lamp market for projection systems.
• Lamp manufacturers in the projection market, or contemplating entering the projection market. This includes suppliers of both OEM and replacement lamps.
• People planning research, development or products utilizing UHP-type lamps.
• Engineers and researchers involved in microdisplay-based projection systems.
• Anyone interested in the projection lamp market.

Deliverable:

The Lamp Replacement Model is delivered as six excel files under a site license agreement.

Pricing:

The Lamp Replacement Model is available as a stand-alone product for $2,500 or for $1,000 if purchased with the 2006 Projection Lamp Report.

The above pricing is based on report purchase for one site location. Call Insight Media for multi-site pricing.

To order:

Call Annmarie at Insight Media 203-831-8464, or e-mail info@insightmedia.info.

Report Details | Table of Contents

2006 Projection Lamp Report