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2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis

A study of the use of lasers and LEDs as an illumination source for integrated and companion pico-projection systems.

Quick Facts

Date of Release: Publisher: Authors: Number of Pages:

April 2008 Insight Media Matthew Brennesholtz Chris Chinnock 108

The Need:

Pico-projectors, projectors the size of a cell phone or even small enough to integrate into a cell phone, are a topic of active development and products are expected in 2008. This is a new product category and there is no historical data on markets, prices or sales. There was a need to examine this nascent market carefully to see how it is likely to develop, who is likely to buy these projectors and what prices they are likely to pay.

Report Objective:

These pico-projectors are expected to use either laser, LED or hybrid laser/LED illumination. The objective of this report is to apply the price, performance and system level knowledge about lasers and LEDs developed in the Laser and LED Projection Reports to the special needs of the pico-projector market. The goal is to generate realistic forecasts based on engineering analysis of price and performance, plus business, market and competitive analysis to guide the developments by companies working in the field.

This latest edition updates the technology competitive analysis for integrated and companion pico projectors. We did this after seeking additional input from the key providers and have restructured the analysis to provide more clarity in our rating definitions and thinking behind each assessment. These rankings and assessments are our opinion, but we have tried to be careful to layout our arguments so you can better judge the validity of these ratings. In addition, we need to also point out that these ratings do not represent the definitive assessment of an option, but a rough score on their viability.

Highlights:

• Descriptions of the key sub-markets within the expected pico-projector market.
• Identification of which sub-markets are best served by integrated pico-projectors and which are best served by companion, stand-alone, pico-projectors.
• Identification of the key requirements for both integrated and companion pico-projectors.
• Evaluation of the various imaging technologies proposed for pico-projectors and an evaluation of their ability to meet market requirements
• Forecast BOM cost estimates for both laser and LED-based projectors to serve the markets. BOMs are estimated for 11 variations on pico-projector designs
• Forecasts of the total pico-projector unit sales.
• Forecasts for pico-projector sales revenues.
• Identification of the key players in the pico-projector field.
• Evaluation of competitive technologies that could cut into the expected pico-projector market.


This new addition:
• Adds more details on the penetration adoption models used to forecast companion and integrated pico projectors
• Significantly increases the unit and revenue forecasts
• Updates the bill of material analysis
• Adds a new table summarizing all the major players (component and pico projector) and their status of development and engagement
• Updates the pico projector technology comparative analysis for both integrated and companion projectors (see chart below)

Since this market does not exist yet, forecasting can be difficult. Therefore, we offer three forecast scenarios with clear assumptions and details of the analysis. Compared to the November edition of this report, we have substantially increased the optimistic forecast, while also increasing the expected and conservative. We believe this is justified by the level of activity and maturity of products and the nearly fever-pitch anticipation of this category. But, we have also tried to temper this enthusiasm with the realities of producing the components and the value propositions offered to consumers.

View the complete Table of Contents

The following graph is a sample of a figure from the forecast section of the market segment report.

This figure shows the expected penetration of integrated and companion pico-projectors into the total available market of systems that could benefit from pico-projectors. The full report also gives optimistic and conservative forecasts and breaks the composite penetration rate down by sub-market.

An analysis of the various pico-projector approaches is also included, as shown below.

The report contains 41 figures and 22 tables. In addition, many of the figures have accompanying tables, as shown in the sample.

View the complete Table of Contents

Other Market Segment Analyses

Eight market segment analyses for the market segments are planned to give details of the application of Laser and LED light sources in specific markets.

• Electronic Cinema & Large Venue (Completed November 2007)
• Visualization and Simulation (Completed November 2007)
• Pico-projectors, both integrated and companion (Completed April 2008)
• Pocket & Ultra-portable Projectors (Expected completion August 2008)
• Consumer RPTV (Expected completion To Be Announced)
• Consumer Home Theater (Expected completion To Be Announced)
• Business Projectors (Expected completion To Be Announced)
• Heads-Up Displays (both aviation and automotive) (Expected completion To Be Announced)

Methodology:

The contents of this report related to laser technology and pricing are based on the 2007 Insight Media Laser Projection Report. The contents related to LEDs are based on the 2006 Insight Media LED Report, plus the studies and forecasts prepared for the 2008 LED Report. Additional research, including discussions with key players in the pico-projector industry and expected pico-projector users, added specific information on these markets to this market segment analysis.
Markets were forecast by Insight Media based on inputs on the current sales of systems that would benefit from pico-projectors, plus historical market penetration data for new products. These Insight Media forecasts were compared to other forecasts of the industry to ensure they were in accord.

Who Should Buy:

• This report should be purchased by anyone designing or manufacturing pico-projectors.
• Companies expecting to sell or use pico-projectors. This includes all companies involved in mobile data services.
• The report is of value to people planning research, development or products utilizing laser or LED illumination for pico-projectors or other small projectors.
• Engineers and researchers involved in laser projection systems.
• Investors looking for information to support due diligence
  

Associated Report:

In addition to the main 2007 Laser Report, there is a companion 2008 LED Projection Systems Report to be available, September 2008. There are 8 additional market segment reports, as described above, that document the use of lasers and LEDs in projection systems in their respective market segments.

Report Comparison Table

For an explanation of coverage in our Pico, LED- & Laser-based Ultraportable and Toy Projector Reports, please see below:

Insight Media Report	2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis	2009 LED- and Laser-based Ultraportable Projector Report	2009 Low-Cost and Toy Projection Systems Report
Issued	April, 2008. To be updated Q2 2009	January, 2009	March, 2009
Coverage	Both integrated and companion picoprojectors	Ultraportable projectors	Stand-alone front projectors with retail prices below $300
Light source	LEDs now, also lasers in the study period.	LEDs and mercury lamps now, also lasers in the study period	Incandescent lamps and LEDs now, also metal-halide and mercury lamps in the study period.
Weight range	Always under 1 pound, more typically under 0.75 pounds.	About 1 pound to an upper limit of 4 pounds	Smallest are expected to be about ½ pound or a little less.  Largest will be 6 – 8 pounds or more.
Price range	$200 - $500 or more	Typically $400 - $2500	Currently $150 - $300.  Lower limit will reach about $40 by 2013.
Size range	Companion projectors easily fit in a pocket.  Integrated projectors fit inside a cell phone	Easily fit into a briefcase	No specific upper or lower limit on size.  The projectors are mostly portable, however.
Lumen Range	8 – 50 lumens	50 – 3000 lumens	Currently 8 – 150 or so lumens.  Expected to reach 2500 lumens during study period.
Comment	Currently none are commercially available with more than about 25 lumens.	Lower lumen projectors (<200lm) currently use LEDs, higher lumen projectors. (>1000 Lm.) use UHP-type lamps.  There are few if any projectors available in the 200 – 1000 lumen range.	Includes companion picoprojectors and ultraportable projectors that meet the price target of $300. Toy projectors are mostly expected to be under $150
There is no overlap between the picoprojector report and the ultraportable projector report.  The low-cost projector report overlaps both of the other reports.  The low-cost projector report estimates the percentage of all pico and ultraportable sales will full under the $300 limit.

About the Author:

The principal author of the 2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis is Matthew Brennesholtz. Matthew Brennesholtz has worked in the display field since receiving his Masters of Engineering degree from Cornell University in 1978. He has worked on direct view CRT systems and projection systems based on CRTs, oil-film light valves, DMDs, LCDs and LCoS. In addition to system level work, he was involved in the design and testing of optical components for these systems. Currently he is at Insight Media providing consulting and other services to the display industry.

Deliverable:

Each market segment analysis is a separate PDF file. On-site presentations and discussions of the data in this report are also available.

Pricing:

The 2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis is available for $2,000.

All prices are for a company site license.

For additional market segment analyses, on-site presentation of the results of this report or custom market segment analyses, contact Insight Media.

The above pricing is based on report purchase for one site location. Call Insight Media for multi-site pricing.

For on-site presentation of the results of this report or custom market segment analyses, contact Insight Media.

More Information: info@insightmedia.info

Report Details | Table of Contents | 2007 Laser Projection Systems Report