2008 Pico-Projector Market Segment Analysis

A study of the use of lasers and LEDs as an illumination source for integrated and companion pico-projection systems.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1	Description of the Current Market	7
1.1.	Description of the Expected Market for Pico-Projectors	9
1.2.	Key Market Trends	14
1.2.1.	Handheld Devices	14
1.2.2.	Desktop Systems	21
1.3.	Market Pull vs Technology Push	23
1.4.	Shortcomings of Current Displays	24
2	Projector Requirements	25
2.1.	Key Technical Requirements	25
2.1.1.	Integrated Projectors	25
2.1.2.	Companion Projectors	26
2.2.	Advantages of Laser Illumination	27
2.3.	Technology Comparison	28
2.3.1.	Single Scanning Mirror	33
2.3.2.	Two Scanning Mirrors	34
2.3.3.	Color Sequential Transmissive LCD	34
2.3.4.	DLP	35
2.3.5.	LCoS CFA	36
2.3.6.	Color Sequential LCoS	36
3	System BOM Evaluation	42
3.1.	BOMs for Integrated Projector Modules	43
3.2.	BOMs for Companion Projectors	47
3.3.	BOM Conclusion	54
4	Forecasts	55
4.1.	Introduction	55
4.2.	Total Available Market (TAM)	56
4.3.	Expected Forecast for Pico-Projectors	58
4.3.1.	Companion Pico-Projectors	58
4.3.2.	Integrated/Embedded Pico Projectors	62
4.3.3.	Composite Expected Forecast	66
4.4.	Composite Optimistic Forecasts	69
4.5.	Composite Conservative Forecast	72
4.6.	Forecast Conclusions	75
4.7.	Discussion of Assumptions and Penetrations	78
5	SWOT Analysis of Lasers vs. LEDs	80
5.1.	Pico-Projectors vs Competitive Display Technologies	80
5.1.1.	Strengths	80
5.1.2.	Weaknesses	80
5.1.3.	Opportunities	80
5.1.4.	Threats	80
5.2.	LEDs vs. Lasers	81
5.2.1.	Strengths	81
5.2.2.	Weaknesses	81
5.2.3.	Opportunities	81
5.2.4.	Threats	81
5.3.	Lasers vs. LEDs	81
5.3.1.	Strengths	81
5.3.2.	Weaknesses	81
5.3.3.	Opportunities	82
5.3.4.	Threats	82
6	Major Players	83
6.1.	Current players	83
6.2.	Other Likely Players	91
6.3.	Other Technologies	91
6.3.1.	Direct view displays	91
6.3.2.	Portable projection screens	92
6.3.3.	Pocket Projectors	93
6.3.4.	Rollable and Foldable Displays	93
6.3.5.	Head Mounted Displays	95
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Existing Market for Pico-Projectors		8
Figure 2: Publicity Photo of Integrated Pico-Projectors from Microvision		11
Figure 3: Photo of a Working Prototype Companion Pico-Projector from Microvision		12
Figure 4: Photo of a Working Prototype Companion Pico-Projector from Upstream		13
Figure 5: Photo of a Mock-up of an Integrated Pico-Projector from Microvision		13
Figure 6: Apple iPhone Handheld Device		15
Figure 7: Cell Phone with Virtual Keyboard		18
Figure 8: Bluetooth and Camera Equipped Pen		19
Figure 9: Polymer Vision Rollable Display		20
Figure 10: Myvu Personal Eyewear with Video iPod		21
Figure 11: Microvision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner		34
Figure 12: DLP Imagers and ASICs Optimized for Pico-projectors		35
Figure 13: Displaytech SVGA Imager Compared to TI SVGA Imager & ASICs		38
Figure 14: Syndiant WVGA Compared to TI SVGA Imager		39
Figure 15: Syndiant and TI ASICs		40
Figure 16: Historical Consumer Electronics Penetration Rates		56
Figure 17: Pico Projector WW Total Available Market (TAM)		57
Figure 18: Expected Penetration of Companion Pico-Projectors into the Market		61
Figure 19: Expected Unit Sales of Companion Pico-Projectors		62
Figure 20: Expected Penetration of Integrated Pico-Projectors into the Market		65
Figure 21: Expected Unit Sales of Integrated Pico-Projectors		66
Figure 22: Composite Expected Penetration of Pico-Projectors into the TAM		67
Figure 23: Composite Expected Unit sales of Pico-Projectors		68
Figure 24: Expected Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast		69
Figure 25: Composite Optimistic Penetration of Pico-Projectors		70
Figure 26: Composite Optimistic Unit Sales of Pico-Projectors		71
Figure 27: Composite Optimistic Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast		72
Figure 28: Composite Conservative Penetration of Pico-Projectors		73
Figure 29: Conservative Unit Sales of Pico-Projectors		74
Figure 30: Conservative Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast		75
Figure 31: Pico-Projector Unit Sales Forecast Summary		76
Figure 32: Pico-Projector Revenue Forecast Summary		77
Figure 33: Four Sample Pico-Projectors from CES 2008		83
Figure 34: Portable Screen Used with a Pocket Projector		92
Figure 35: Flexible Display from LG.Philips LCD		93
Figure 36: Personal Display Glasses from Mobintech		95
Table of Tables
Table 1: Projector categories that could use laser and LED illumination		7
Table 2: Products That Could Include Pico-Projectors		10
Table 3: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers		28
Table 4: Development Matrix Comparison Tables		28
Table 5: Integrated Pico-Projector Development Matrix (2010 performance/price goals)		30
Table 6: Companion Pico-Projector Development Matrix (2009 performance/price goals)		31
Table 7: Pico-Projector Human Factors Unknowns		32
Table 8: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with Single-Mirror Scan		44
Table 9: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and Lasers		45
Table 10: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and LEDs		46
Table 11: BOM for an Integrated Pico-Projector with a Large Color-Sequential LCoS Imager and LEDs		46
Table 12: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with Two-Mirror Scan		48
Table 13: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with 0.41" SVGA DLP and LEDs		49
Table 14: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with 0.23" HVGA DLP and LEDs		50
Table 15: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with LCoS CFA Panel and White LED		51
Table 16: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Color-Sequential Transmissive LCD and LEDs		52
Table 17: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Small Color-Sequential LCoS and LEDs		53
Table 18: BOM for a Companion Pico-Projector with a Large Color-Sequential LCoS and LEDs		54
Table 19: Expected Pico-Projector ASP Forecast		58
Table 20: Low Pico-Projector ASP Forecast		71
Table 21: High Pico-Projector ASP Forecast		74
Table 22: Known Players in the Pocket and Pico-Projector Business		84

 

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