2011 Picoprojector/Camera Report
Table of Contents
1
Executive Summary
10
1.1.
Part 1 Executive Summary
10
1.1.1.
Market Segment Analysis
10
1.1.2.
Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis
12
1.1.3.
Enabling Technology
14
1.2.
Part 2: Picos Embedded in Cameras Executive Summary
16
1.2.1.
Pico/Camera Market Analysis
16
1.2.2.
End-User Pico/Camera Purchase Decision Analysis
19
1.2.3.
Pico/Camera Forecast
21
Part 1: Pico/Microprojector Common Section
24
2
Introduction & Methodology
25
3
Market Segment Analysis
27
3.1.
What are Pico and Micro Projectors?
27
3.2.
A Brief History of Pico/Micro Projectors
28
3.3.
Market Data Uncertainty
33
3.4.
Pico/Micro Projector Use Models
33
3.5.
Market Segments for Pico- and Micro- Projectors
35
3.6.
Market Trends Through 2016
37
3.6.1.
Market Pull vs. Technology Push
37
3.6.2.
Lumen Output Increases
37
3.6.3.
Supply Chain Consolidation
37
3.6.4.
Focused Designs
38
3.7.
Milestone Roadmap
38
3.8.
Technologies In Competition with Mobile Projectors
43
3.8.1.
Low-cost Mainstream Projectors
45
3.8.2.
Direct-View LCD and OLED Displays
46
3.8.3.
e-Paper including Rollable and Foldable Displays
49
3.8.4.
Transflective Displays
51
3.8.5.
Head Mounted Displays
52
3.8.6.
Non-portable Displays
54
4
Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis
55
4.1.
Mobile Projector Colorimetry
55
4.1.1.
Wavelength Choice for LEDs
58
4.1.2.
Wavelength Choice for Lasers
61
4.2.
Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast
64
4.2.1.
Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect
68
4.3.
Resolution
70
4.3.1.
Text Legibility
71
4.4.
Pico/Micro Projector Laser Safety
75
5
Enabling Technology Analysis
79
5.1.
Valid Technology Combinations
79
5.2.
Étendue and Power Limited Pico/Micro Projector Systems
81
5.2.1.
Étendue Limitations
82
5.2.2.
Power Limitations
86
5.3.
Image Sources
87
5.3.1.
Scanned Mirror Systems
92
5.3.2.
Micromirror Arrays
95
5.3.3.
LCoS CFA
96
5.3.4.
Color Sequential LCoS
98
5.3.5.
Other Approaches to Pico/Micro Projection
105
5.4.
Illumination Sources for Pico- and Micro-Projectors
111
5.4.1.
Polarization and Collection Efficiency
111
5.4.2.
RGB LED Illumination
114
5.4.3.
White LED Illumination
117
5.4.4.
Laser Illumination
119
5.5.
Power for Mobile Projectors
125
5.5.1.
General Power Requirements
125
5.5.2.
Batteries for Mobile Projectors
126
5.6.
Picoprojector/Source Connectivity
126
5.6.1.
Internal Connections
127
5.6.2.
Wired Connections
128
5.6.3.
Wireless Connections
134
5.7.
Pico/Micro Projector Manufacturing Issues
145
6
Other Applications
153
6.1.
Retail Use
153
6.2.
Automotive
154
6.3.
Aviation
157
6.4.
Industrial
158
6.5.
Medical
160
6.6.
Other Potential Applications
162
Part 2: Pico/Camera Market Segment
163
7
Pico/Camera Competitive Analysis
163
7.1.
Price-Performance-Competitive Analysis of Existing Units
164
7.1.1.
Comparison of Pico/Non-Pico Cameras
168
7.2.
Picoprojector Technology For Cameras
172
7.3.
Competition from Other Display Technologies
173
7.3.1.
Consumer Users
174
7.3.2.
Professional Users
176
7.4.
Trend Analysis
178
7.4.1.
Application Trend Factors
178
7.4.2.
Technical Trend Factors
178
8
Pico/Camera Market Analysis
180
8.1.
Market Development Analysis
180
8.1.1.
Camera Technology and Applications
180
8.1.2.
Regional Aspects likely to Affect the Picoprojector/Camera Penetration
181
8.2.
Consumer Product Feedback
181
9
Pico/Camera Purchase Decision Analysis
184
9.1.
Analysis of Camera Manufacturer Purchase Decisions
184
9.2.
Overview of Consumer Purchase Decision Analysis
187
9.3.
Parameter Definitions for Consumer Purchase Decisions
189
9.4.
Analysis of End User Purchase Decisions
192
10
Projector Camera Forecast Model Analysis
199
10.1.
Total Available Market Analysis
199
10.2.
Sales Penetration Analysis
200
10.2.1.
Derivation of the Picoprojector/Camera Yearly Sales Penetration Curves
204
11
Projector Phone Forecast Results
208
11.1.
Historical Data
208
11.2.
Pico/Camera Unit Forecasts
208
11.3.
Pico/Camera Revenue Forecasts
209
11.4.
Embedded Picoprojector/Camera Forecast Discussion
211
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall
13
Figure 2: Pico/Camera Use Model
16
Figure 3: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations: Cost Reduced
20
Figure 4: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations: Performance Enhanced
20
Figure 5: Unit Sales Forecasts for Picoprojectors Embedded in Cameras
22
Figure 6: Revenue Forecasts for Picoprojector Modules Embedded in Cameras
22
Figure 7: Report Methodology Flow Chart
26
Figure 8: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008
29
Figure 9: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009
30
Figure 10: Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2010
31
Figure 11: Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2011
32
Figure 12: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
36
Figure 13: Mainstream Projectors for Under $400
46
Figure 14: Direct-View Displays In Competition with Pico & Micro Projectors
47
Figure 15: iPad Connected with a 3M Picoprojector
48
Figure 16: Amazon Kindle e-Book Readers
50
Figure 17: Qualcomm Mirasol 5.7" display at CES 2011
50
Figure 18: Transflective Pixel Qi Display
52
Figure 19: Transflective Pixel Qi Display as an External Display Module
52
Figure 20: Example HMDs
53
Figure 21: Colorimetry of RGB LED and Laser Projectors
56
Figure 22: LED Optical Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
59
Figure 23: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
60
Figure 24: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
60
Figure 25: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies
62
Figure 26: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies
63
Figure 27: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies
63
Figure 28: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen
66
Figure 29: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen
67
Figure 30: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall
67
Figure 31: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall
68
Figure 32: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors
69
Figure 33: Laser Safety Evaluation Geometry
76
Figure 34: Laser Safety Evaluations
77
Figure 35: Étendue Definition
83
Figure 36: Étendue with uniform cone angle
83
Figure 37: Étendue conservation with a simple lens
84
Figure 38: MicroVision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner
93
Figure 39: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo
94
Figure 40: Funai Picoprojector with Nippon Signal Module
94
Figure 41: Eco Scan Two-Mirror Pico Module from Nippon Signal
95
Figure 42: Members of the DLP Pico Family of Microdisplays
96
Figure 43: Himax CFA LCoS Design
97
Figure 44: Himax CFA LCoS Products
97
Figure 45: Pulse Width Modulation
99
Figure 46: Micron Imagers
101
Figure 47: Products in the Syndiant Suite at CES 2011
102
Figure 48: Syndiant Microdisplays
103
Figure 49: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels
104
Figure 50: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Designs
105
Figure 51: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector
106
Figure 52: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector
107
Figure 53: LBO Demonstration Projectors
108
Figure 54: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture
109
Figure 55: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture
109
Figure 56: ImagineOptix PG-Based Pico Module
110
Figure 57: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M
112
Figure 58: LED Recycling from Wavien
113
Figure 59: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant
114
Figure 60: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101
115
Figure 61: Two Channel illumination path
115
Figure 62: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs
116
Figure 63: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series
117
Figure 64: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Picoprojector
118
Figure 65: Red Light Increased by Recycling
119
Figure 66: Pico/Micro Projectors With Direct Green Lasers
121
Figure 67: Laser Speckle Reduction with FLC Cell
123
Figure 68: Focus-Free Microdisplay-Based Laser Projector
125
Figure 69: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module
127
Figure 70: Pico/Micro Projectors with iPod Docks
129
Figure 71: PicoPix 1020 from Philips/Sagemcom
130
Figure 72: USB 2.0 A/B sockets
131
Figure 73: 3M MPro 180 Projector with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth
135
Figure 74: ViewSonic Wi-Fi Connectivity
137
Figure 75: Mobile Connectivity with WHDI and Amimon Low-Power Chips
139
Figure 76: WirelessHD Wireless Video Area Network ("WVAN") Example
141
Figure 77: Proposed Usage Models by the WiGig Alliance
142
Figure 78: Example Pico/Micro Projection Modules
147
Figure 79: Two Modules from Asia Optical
152
Figure 80: Light Blue Optics Projectors used at a Restaurant
154
Figure 81: BrightSign Digital Signage Display
154
Figure 82: HUDs Based on MicroVision PicoP Module at CES 2011
155
Figure 83: F-35 and Virtual HUD
157
Figure 84: Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
159
Figure 85: Examples of Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture
160
Figure 86: VeinViewer from Christie Medical Holdings
161
Figure 87: Samsung Phone with Improved Camera Quality
164
Figure 88: Cameras with Integrated Picoprojectors
166
Figure 89: Cameras with Integrated Picoprojectors While Sharing Photos
167
Figure 90: Camera/Picoprojector Use Model
173
Figure 91: Cameras with 3.5" Touch LCD Screens
174
Figure 92: Large-Screen Technologies Competing with Embedded Picoprojectors
176
Figure 93: External Display with a Professional Camera
177
Figure 94: Amazon User Reviews for the Nikon CoolPix S1000pj
182
Figure 95: Evaluation Chart
188
Figure 96: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations (Reduced Cost)
195
Figure 97: 2013 Importance vs. Expectations (Reduced Cost)
196
Figure 98: 2015 Importance vs. Expectations (Reduced Cost)
196
Figure 99: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations (Enhanced Performance)
197
Figure 100: 2013 Importance vs. Expectations (Enhanced Performance)
197
Figure 101: 2015 Importance vs. Expectations (Enhanced Performance)
198
Figure 102: Worldwide Sales of Digital Cameras
199
Figure 103: Market Penetration (after year of introduction into adjusted TAM)
200
Figure 104: Market Penetration For Consumer Electronics
202
Figure 105: Yearly Sales Penetration Models
203
Figure 106: Forecast Sales Penetration for Pico/Cameras
204
Figure 107: Sales Forecasts for Picoprojectors Embedded in Cameras
208
Figure 108: Revenue Forecasts for Picoprojector Modules Embedded in Cameras
211
Table of Tables
Table 1: Pico/micro Projector Market Segments
10
Table 2: Technology Combinations for Picoprojectors
15
Table 3: Technology & Application Trend Factors for Pico/Cameras
18
Table 4: Summary of Consumer Purchase Decision Analysis
21
Table 5: Pico and Micro Projector Differentiators
27
Table 6: Pico/micro Projector Market Segments
35
Table 7: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles
36
Table 8: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Mobile Projector Sales
39
Table 9: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies
43
Table 10: Specifications for the Vivitek Model D510
46
Table 11: Properties of Various Color Gamuts in Figure 21
57
Table 12: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays
58
Table 13: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays
61
Table 14: Illumination from Various Sources
65
Table 15: Resolution Requirements for Pico/Micro Projectors
70
Table 16: Minimum Resolutions for Various Market Segments
71
Table 17: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions
72
Table 18: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions and Projector Lumens
74
Table 19: Technology Combinations for Picoprojectors
80
Table 20: Example Étendues
85
Table 21: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers
88
Table 22: Micron Microdisplay Specifications
101
Table 23: Syndiant Microdisplay Specifications
102
Table 24: Himax CS Microdisplay Specifications
104
Table 25: Laser Category Definitions
119
Table 26: Availability of Different Laser Categories
120
Table 27: Laser Wall Plug Efficiency
120
Table 28: Approaches to Speckle Reduction
122
Table 29: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories
125
Table 30: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats
133
Table 31: 60MHz Bandwidth Allocation
140
Table 32: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats
143
Table 33: Pico/Micro Projector Module Components
145
Table 34: Pico/Micro Projector Module Manufacturers
148
Table 35: Known Cameras with Embedded Picoprojectors
164
Table 36: Comparison of Nikon Pico/DSC Camera to Non-Pico DSC Camera
169
Table 37: Comparison of Compact Pico/DVC Cameras to Non-Pico DVC Cameras
170
Table 38: Comparison of Sony Pico/DVC Cameras to Non-Pico DVC Cameras
171
Table 39: Application Trend Factors for Cameras
178
Table 40: Technology & Application Trend Factors for Handsets
179
Table 41: Progress in Picoprojector Modules-Cost Reduced
185
Table 42: Progress in Picoprojector Modules-Performance Enhanced
186
Table 43: Handset/picoprojector Criteria Definitions
190
Table 44: Pico/Camera Constant-Performance, Decreasing Cost Scenario
194
Table 45: Pico/Camera Increasing Performance, Constant Cost Scenario
195
Table 46: Summary of Consumer Purchase Decision Analysis
198
Table 47: Pico/Camera Forecast Derivation
205
Table 48: Picoprojector Modules Prices by Volume-Cost Reduction Scenario
209
Table 49: Picoprojector Modules Prices by Volume-Performance Increase Scenario
210
Table 50: Picoprojector Modules Prices by Volume-ASP
210

 

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