2011 Stand-alone Picoprojector Report

Table of Contents
1 Executive Summary 11
     1.1.      Part 1: Common Section Executive Summary 11
          1.1.1.           Market Segment Analysis 11
               1.1.1.1.                Technologies in Competition with Mobile Projectors 12
               1.1.1.2.                Developments Likely to Affect the Pico/Micro Projector Market 13
          1.1.2.           Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis 13
               1.1.2.1.                Achievable Image Size 14
               1.1.2.2.                Laser Safety 15
          1.1.3.           Enabling Technology 15
               1.1.3.1.                Technology Combinations 15
               1.1.3.2.                Light Sources and System Efficiency 16
               1.1.3.3.                Power and Battery Technology 17
     1.2.      Part 2: Stand-alone Picoprojector Executive Summary 17
          1.2.1.           Forecast Regions 17
          1.2.2.           User Feedback and Use-Model of Stand-Alone Picoprojectors 18
          1.2.3.           Competitive Technologies 19
          1.2.4.           Application and Technology Trends for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 19
          1.2.5.           End-User Stand-Alone Picoprojector Purchase Decision Analysis 21
          1.2.6.           Stand-Alone Picoprojector Forecast 22
2 Introduction & Methodology 25
       Part 1: Pico/Microprojector Common Section 27
3 Market Segment Analysis 28
     3.1.      What are Pico and Micro Projectors? 28
     3.2.      A Brief History of Pico/Micro Projectors 29
     3.3.      Market Data Uncertainty 34
     3.4.      Pico/Micro Projector Use Models 34
     3.5.      Market Segments for Pico- and Micro- Projectors 36
     3.6.      Market Trends Through 2016 38
          3.6.1.           Market Pull vs. Technology Push 38
          3.6.2.           Lumen Output Increases 38
          3.6.3.           Supply Chain Consolidation 38
          3.6.4.           Focused Designs 39
     3.7.      Milestone Roadmap 39
     3.8.      Technologies In Competition with Mobile Projectors 44
          3.8.1.           Low-cost Mainstream Projectors 46
          3.8.2.           Direct-View LCD and OLED Displays 47
          3.8.3.           e-Paper including Rollable and Foldable Displays 50
          3.8.4.           Transflective Displays 52
          3.8.5.           Head Mounted Displays 53
          3.8.6.           Non-portable Displays 55
4 Pico/Micro Projector Human Factors Analysis 56
     4.1.      Mobile Projector Colorimetry 56
          4.1.1.           Wavelength Choice for LEDs 59
          4.1.2.           Wavelength Choice for Lasers 62
     4.2.      Projector Luminance, Image Brightness, Image Size and Contrast 65
          4.2.1.           Helmholtz-Kohlrausch Effect 69
     4.3.      Resolution 71
          4.3.1.           Text Legibility 72
     4.4.      Pico/Micro Projector Laser Safety 76
5 Enabling Technology Analysis 80
     5.1.      Valid Technology Combinations 80
     5.2.      Étendue and Power Limited Pico/Micro Projector Systems 82
          5.2.1.           Étendue Limitations 83
               5.2.1.1.                Technical Description 83
          5.2.2.           Power Limitations 87
     5.3.      Image Sources 88
          5.3.1.           Scanned Mirror Systems 93
               5.3.1.1.                Single Scanning Mirror 93
               5.3.1.2.                Two Scanning Mirrors 94
          5.3.2.           Micromirror Arrays 96
          5.3.3.           LCoS CFA 97
          5.3.4.           Color Sequential LCoS 99
               5.3.4.1.                Micron 101
               5.3.4.2.                Syndiant 103
               5.3.4.3.                OmniVision (Formerly Aurora) 104
               5.3.4.4.                Himax 104
          5.3.5.           Other Approaches to Pico/Micro Projection 106
               5.3.5.1.                Light Blue Optics (Phase Modulation Projection) 106
               5.3.5.2.                Display Photonics (Transmissive LCD) 109
               5.3.5.3.                ImagineOptix Polarization Gratings 111
     5.4.      Illumination Sources for Pico- and Micro-Projectors 112
          5.4.1.           Polarization and Collection Efficiency 112
          5.4.2.           RGB LED Illumination 115
          5.4.3.           White LED Illumination 118
          5.4.4.           Laser Illumination 120
               5.4.4.1.                Laser Speckle 123
               5.4.4.2.                Focus-Free Projectors 125
     5.5.      Power for Mobile Projectors 126
          5.5.1.           General Power Requirements 126
          5.5.2.           Batteries for Mobile Projectors 127
     5.6.      Picoprojector/Source Connectivity 127
          5.6.1.           Internal Connections 128
          5.6.2.           Wired Connections 129
               5.6.2.1.                USB 130
               5.6.2.2.                HDMI 133
               5.6.2.3.                DisplayPort 133
               5.6.2.4.                Wired Interfaces Summary 134
          5.6.3.           Wireless Connections 135
               5.6.3.1.                Wireless Connectivity to the Internet 135
               5.6.3.2.                Bluetooth 136
               5.6.3.3.                Wireless USB 137
               5.6.3.4.                Wi-Fi 137
               5.6.3.5.                WiMAX 138
               5.6.3.6.                Proprietary Interfaces 138
               5.6.3.7.                Near Field Communication 139
               5.6.3.8.                ZigBee 139
               5.6.3.9.                WHDI 139
               5.6.3.10.                60GHz 141
               5.6.3.11.                Wireless Connectivity Summary 143
     5.7.      Pico/Micro Projector Manufacturing Issues 146
6 Other Applications 154
     6.1.      Retail Use 154
     6.2.      Automotive 155
     6.3.      Aviation 158
     6.4.      Industrial 159
     6.5.      Medical 161
     6.6.      Other Potential Applications 163
  Part 2: Stand-Alone Pico Market Segment 164
7 Picoprojector Competitive Analysis 166
     7.1.      Picoprojector Technology for Stand-alone Systems 167
          7.1.1.1.           Imaging Technology 167
          7.1.1.2.           Light Source Technology 168
     7.2.      Evolution of Picoprojector Modules 169
     7.3.      Competitive Analysis of Existing Stand-Alone Picos 173
          7.3.1.           Lumen Output 176
          7.3.2.           Embedded Games 177
          7.3.3.           Cost and Importance of Media Player 177
          7.3.4.           Tablet Computers 177
          7.3.5.           Competition with Microprojectors 178
          7.3.6.           Competition with Mainstream Projectors 178
     7.4.      Consumer Product Feedback 179
          7.4.1.           On-Line Feedback 179
          7.4.2.           Feedback Summary 181
     7.5.      Stand-alone Picoprojector Use models 183
     7.6.      Competition from Other Display Technologies by Use Model 185
          7.6.1.           Large Direct View Displays 187
          7.6.2.           Add-on Displays 187
          7.6.3.           Competition from Mainstream and Microprojectors 188
          7.6.4.           Direct View Displays & Systems 189
8 Market Development Analysis 193
     8.1.      Regional Aspects Likely to Affect the Stand-Alone Picoprojector Penetration 193
     8.2.      Trend Analysis 194
          8.2.1.           Application Trend Factors 194
          8.2.2.           Technical Trend Factors 195
          8.2.3.           Details on Selected Trends 196
               8.2.3.1.                Content Types 196
               8.2.3.2.                Wider Content Availability 197
               8.2.3.3.                Picoprojector Connectivity 197
9 TAM and Penetration Analysis 199
     9.1.      Total Available Market Analysis 199
     9.2.      Sales Penetration Analysis 201
10 Stand-Alone Picoprojector Purchase Decision Analysis 203
     10.1.      Overview of Consumer Purchase Decision Analysis 204
     10.2.      Parameter Definitions for Consumer Purchase Decisions 206
     10.3.      Analysis of End User Purchase Decisions 209
11 Stand-alone Picoprojector Forecast Analysis 216
     11.1.      Stand-Alone Picoprojector Forecasts 216
12 Stand-Alone Picoprojector Forecast Results 220
     12.1.      Stand-Alone Pico Unit Forecasts 220
     12.2.      Stand-Alone Pico Revenue Forecasts 223
     12.3.      Embedded Stand-alone Picoprojector Forecast Discussion 226
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall 14
Figure 2: Picoprojectors for the TV Replacement Market in Regions 2 & 3 18
Figure 3: Direct-View Stand-Alone Picoprojector Competitors 19
Figure 4: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations: Region 1 21
Figure 5: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations: Region 2/3 21
Figure 6: Unit Sales Forecasts for Stand-Alone Picoprojectors 22
Figure 7: Expected Sales Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 23
Figure 8: Revenue Forecasts for Modules Used in Stand-Alone Picoprojectors 23
Figure 9: Revenue Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 24
Figure 10: Report Methodology Flow Chart for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 26
Figure 11: Four Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2008 30
Figure 12: Five Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2009 31
Figure 13: Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2010 32
Figure 14: Sample Picoprojectors from CES 2011 33
Figure 15: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles 37
Figure 16: Mainstream Projector for Under $400 47
Figure 17: Direct-View Displays In Competition with Pico & Micro Projectors 48
Figure 18: iPad Connected with a 3M Picoprojector 49
Figure 19: Amazon Kindle e-Book Readers 51
Figure 20: Qualcomm Mirasol 5.7" display at CES 2011 51
Figure 21: Transflective Pixel Qi Display 53
Figure 22: Transflective Pixel Qi Display as an External Display Module 53
Figure 23: Example HMDs 54
Figure 24: Colorimetry of RGB LED and Laser Projectors 57
Figure 25: LED Optical Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies 60
Figure 26: LED Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies 61
Figure 27: LED Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies 61
Figure 28: Laser Power Required as Red Wavelength Varies 63
Figure 29: Laser Power Required as Green Wavelength Varies 64
Figure 30: Laser Power Required as Blue Wavelength Varies 64
Figure 31: Addressable Screen Sizes with a High-gain (2.2) Screen 67
Figure 32: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Matte-White (1.0) Screen 68
Figure 33: Addressable Screen Sizes with an Off-White (0.8) Wall 68
Figure 34: Addressable Screen Sizes with a Darker (0.5) Wall 69
Figure 35: Brightness Enhancement of LED vs Lamp Projectors 70
Figure 36: Laser Safety Evaluation Geometry 77
Figure 37: Laser Safety Evaluations 78
Figure 38: Étendue Definition 84
Figure 39: Étendue with uniform cone angle 84
Figure 40: Étendue conservation with a simple lens 85
Figure 41: MicroVision Bi-axial Mirror Scanner 94
Figure 42: Two Scanning Mirror System from bTendo 95
Figure 43: Funai Picoprojector with Nippon Signal Module 95
Figure 44: Eco Scan Two-Mirror Pico Module from Nippon Signal 96
Figure 45: Members of the DLP Pico Family of Microdisplays 97
Figure 46: Himax CFA LCoS Design 98
Figure 47: Himax CFA LCoS Products 98
Figure 48: Pulse Width Modulation 100
Figure 49: Micron Imagers 102
Figure 50: Products in the Syndiant Suite at CES 2011 103
Figure 51: Syndiant Microdisplays 104
Figure 52: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Panels 105
Figure 53: Himax Color Sequential LCoS Designs 106
Figure 54: Layout of a Light Blue Optics Projector 107
Figure 55: Hologram, Subframe and Frame in a LBO Projector 108
Figure 56: LBO Demonstration Projectors 109
Figure 57: Transmissive LCD Panels for the Display Photonic Systems Architecture 110
Figure 58: Block Diagram of Display Photonic Systems Architecture 110
Figure 59: ImagineOptix PG-Based Pico Module 111
Figure 60: Polarization Recycling in the MM200 Module from 3M 113
Figure 61: LED Recycling from Wavien 114
Figure 62: LED Light Collection with a Color-combining Prism from Syndiant 115
Figure 63: LED combiner from Optoma PK-101 116
Figure 64: Two Channel illumination path 116
Figure 65: Typical Non-Linearities of LEDs 117
Figure 66: Spectra of the Osram Oslon LX Series 118
Figure 67: White LED from 3M MPro 110 Picoprojector 119
Figure 68: Red Light Increased by Recycling 120
Figure 69: Pico/Micro Projectors With Direct Green Lasers 122
Figure 70: Laser Speckle Reduction with FLC Cell 124
Figure 71: Focus-Free Microdisplay-Based Laser Projector 126
Figure 72: Block Diagram for a Himax Picoprojector Module 128
Figure 73: Pico/Micro Projectors with iPod Docks 130
Figure 74: PicoPix 1020 from Philips/Sagemcom 131
Figure 75: USB 2.0 A/B sockets 132
Figure 76: 3M MPro 180 Projector with Wi-Fi and Bluetooth 136
Figure 77: ViewSonic Wi-Fi Connectivity 138
Figure 78: Mobile Connectivity with WHDI and Amimon Low-Power Chips 140
Figure 79: WirelessHD Wireless Video Area Network ("WVAN") Example 142
Figure 80: Proposed Usage Models by the WiGig Alliance 143
Figure 81: Example Pico/Micro Projection Modules 148
Figure 82: Two Modules from Asia Optical 153
Figure 83: Light Blue Optics Projectors used at a Restaurant 155
Figure 84: BrightSign Digital Signage Display 155
Figure 85: HUDs Based on MicroVision PicoP Module at CES 2011 156
Figure 86: F-35 and Virtual HUD 158
Figure 87: Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture 160
Figure 88: Examples of Structured Light for 3D Contour Capture 161
Figure 89: VeinViewer from Christie Medical Holdings 162
Figure 90: Stand-Alone Picoprojectors 166
Figure 91: Stand-Alone Picoprojector Evaluations 180
Figure 92: Add-on Displays 188
Figure 93: Competitive Mainstream Projectors 189
Figure 94: Competitive Micro Projectors 189
Figure 95: Competitive Mobile Systems with Displays 191
Figure 96: Phone Handsets in Competition with Stand-alone Picos 191
Figure 97: Laptops and Netbooks in Competition with Stand-alone Picos 192
Figure 98: World Population by Region 200
Figure 99: Adjusted Population by Region 200
Figure 100: Market Penetration of Consumer Products 201
Figure 101: Evaluation Chart 205
Figure 102: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations (Region 1) 212
Figure 103: 2013 Importance vs. Expectations (Region 1) 212
Figure 104: 2015 Importance vs. Expectations (Region 1) 213
Figure 105: 2011 Importance vs. Expectations (Region 2/3) 213
Figure 106: 2013 Importance vs. Expectations (Region 2/3) 214
Figure 107: 2015 Importance vs. Expectations (Region 2/3) 214
Figure 108: Expected Penetration for Stand-Alone Picoprojectors 217
Figure 109: Expected Sales Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 221
Figure 110: Optimistic Sales Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 221
Figure 111: Conservative Sales Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 222
Figure 112: Total WW Unit Sales Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 222
Figure 113: Expected Revenue Forecasts for Modules for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 224
Figure 114: Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Revenue Forecasts for Modules 225
Figure 115: Expected Revenue Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 226
Figure 116: Optimistic, Expected and Conservative Revenue Forecasts for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 226
Table of Tables
Table 1: Pico/micro Projector Market Segments 12
Table 2: Technology Combinations for Pico/Micro projectors 16
Table 3: Regions for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 18
Table 4: Technology & Application Trend Factors for Stand-Alone Picoprojectors 20
Table 5: Summary of Consumer Purchase Decision Analysis 22
Table 6: Pico and Micro Projector Differentiators 28
Table 7: Pico/micro Projector Market Segments 36
Table 8: Pico/Micro Projector Market Segments Expected Usage Profiles 37
Table 9: Roadmap of Events Expected to Affect Mobile Projector Sales 40
Table 10: Advantages/Disadvantages of Competitive Technologies 44
Table 11: Specifications for the Vivitek Model D510 47
Table 12: Properties of Various Color Gamuts in Figure 24 58
Table 13: Optimum and Acceptable Peak LED Wavelengths for Displays 59
Table 14: Optimum and Acceptable Laser Wavelengths for Displays 62
Table 15: Illumination from Various Sources 66
Table 16: Resolution Requirements for Pico/Micro Projectors 71
Table 17: Minimum Resolutions for Various Market Segments 72
Table 18: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions 73
Table 19: Text Character Counts for Various Display Resolutions and Projector Lumens 75
Table 20: Technology Combinations for Picoprojectors 81
Table 21: Example Étendues 86
Table 22: Comparison of Microdisplay/Scanning Device Suppliers 89
Table 23: Micron Microdisplay Specifications 102
Table 24: Syndiant Microdisplay Specifications 103
Table 25: Himax CS Microdisplay Specifications 105
Table 26: Laser Category Definitions 120
Table 27: Availability of Different Laser Categories 121
Table 28: Laser Wall Plug Efficiency 121
Table 29: Approaches to Speckle Reduction 123
Table 30: Picoprojector Power Consumption Categories 126
Table 31: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wired Formats 134
Table 32: 60MHz Bandwidth Allocation 141
Table 33: Advantages and Disadvantages of Various Wireless Formats 144
Table 34: Pico/Micro Projector Module Components 146
Table 35: Pico/Micro Projector Module Manufacturers 149
Table 36: Stand Alone Product Categories 164
Table 37: Progress in Picoprojector Modules-Cost Reduced 170
Table 38: Progress in Picoprojector Modules-Performance Enhanced 170
Table 39: Progress in Picoprojector Modules-50 Lumen Target 171
Table 40: Progress in Picoprojector Modules-Maximum Performance 172
Table 41: Stand Alone Projector Product Examples 173
Table 42: Stand-Alone Picoprojector End User Evaluations 182
Table 43: Consumer vs. Professional Orientation 184
Table 44: Consumer Pico Projector Use Models and Competitive Technologies 186
Table 45: Regions for Analysis 193
Table 46: Application Trend Factors for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 194
Table 47: Technology & Application Trend Factors for Stand-alone Picoprojectors 195
Table 48: Picoprojector Content Types 197
Table 49: Stand-alone Picoprojector Interface Types & Sources 198
Table 50: Region 1 Stand-Alone picoprojector Criteria Definitions 207
Table 51: Region 2/3 Stand-Alone picoprojector Criteria Definitions 208
Table 52: Stand-Alone Pico Region 1 Purchase Decision Analysis 211
Table 53: Stand Stand-Alone Pico Region 2/3 Purchase Decision Analysis 211
Table 54: Summary of Consumer Purchase Decision Analysis 215
Table 55: Stand-Alone Pico Forecast Derivation 217
Table 56: Stand-alone Picoprojector Module ASP by Volume 223
Table 57: Stand-alone Picoprojector ASP by Volume 224

 

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